Was "Learn to Code" Bad Advice given AI?

What skills will thrive, survive, and dive in the AI future?

Back in 2019, when coal plants were being phased out and miners were losing their jobs, government leaders told the miners that what they needed to do was “learn to code.” Then when media firms started laying off journalists, they were also told, “learn to code.” This advice had its origins back in 2014, when BuzzFeed had a quiz asking workers the question, “should you learn to code?” This was followed by comments from Mark Zuckerberg and Michael Bloomberg on the subject. Over that time, “learn to code” became a political football.

While this advice quickly got politicized, because tech was the future and heavy industry the past, many thought it good advice. Coding jobs were well-paid, clean and your probability of dying in an industrial accident pretty low. However, with the advent of ChatGPT and other applications such as Devin (“the first autonomous software engineer” that enables non-programmers to produce code), the wisdom of this guidance is questionable. The closing of a formerly successful coding boot camp in North Carolina’s Research Triangle area due partially to AI is another indicator of this.

More importantly, this anecdote raises several questions about a work future in which AI is the new reality, such as:

1. What skills will be needed in the coming times?

2. Which skills will be diminished or lost?

3. Is the loss of those skills harmful or irrelevant?

4. Is it possible to predict what jobs will be “safe” from technological advances?

What Jobs Will Be Safe From Technology Advances?

I’ll answer the last question first, as it’s a question I get when I present on the impact of AI on work (it’s usually from a parent asking about what their kid should major in at college). Frankly, I don’t think it’s at all possible to predict what jobs will be safe from automation via AI. Before November 2022, the number of people who had any inkling of how ChatGPT would change the world was infinitesimal. After ChatGPT’s debut and the rapid evolution of AI tools and capabilities, I would argue it’s impossible to forecast both what new advances might appear as well as how those breakthroughs will impact society and the workforce.

As T.J. Jackson Lears, Professor of History at Rutgers, stated,

“All history is the history of unintended consequences.”

As an example, consider the graph below, showing the decline in gum sales since the iPhone was released. What could possibly be the relationship between the two very different markets?

Here’s an explanation in How the iPhone has changed the World from Matt Thames in Medium.

“Who knew that even something as seemingly inconsequential as chewing gum sales would drastically decline as a result of the iPhone and mobile devices? Most gum sales used to come from the impulse buy racks at supermarket checkout lines. Gum sales have declined by 15% since 2007, which is a direct correlation to the iPhone’s release. The reasoning is simple, consumers are on their phones in the checkout line and no longer captivated by the magazines or enticed by gum and candy lining the checkout areas.”

I use the above as an example that trying to predict the impact of technology is very difficult. We still don’t understand the impact of generative AI on jobs, society, businesses and humanity’s long term future. Given the rapidity of new Gen AI capabilities, trying to predict which jobs will be safe going forward is beyond our ability. (Yes, blue collar jobs may be safe for now but the integration of ever-improving robotics with generative AI makes their vulnerability only a matter of time).

Which Skills Will Be Diminished or Lost?

Which skills we may lose is open to debate and not a foregone conclusion. I asked ChatGPT its view and it provided the following table. As you can see, many of these are fundamental skills humans need to be successful individually and collectively. Losing these abilities in future generations could have dire consequences.

However, there is also potential upside for these same skills to be enhanced by generative AI, as the following table from ChatGPT illustrates.

In sum, the loss or gain depends on how we use generative AI. Those that use it as a shortcut will lose out, while those who use it to be more productive, creative, and knowledgeable will win. This idea is captured in the following insight about how best to use generative AI.

“Generative AI should help you think. Not think for you.”

It also brings to mind another adage about generative AI, “You won’t lose your job to AI. You’ll lose your job to someone who uses AI.”

I would tweak that to add,

You may also lose your job to someone who uses AI to add value vs. uses it to be lazy.

What skills Will be Needed in the Future?

In the end, however, I do think some skills will rise in importance while others decline and yet others maintain their importance. These are the skills I think will still be valuable or become increasingly valued in the future.

•Domain-specific Knowledge: I do not worry about generative AI eliminating the need for possessing knowledge about disciplines and subject areas. Domain knowledge will be crucial for two reasons: one is to know the right questions to ask AI and the other is to both verify the responses and put them into context for oneself and others.

•Imagination and Creativity: We will still need these two skills, however, they can be significantly enhanced by the use of generative AI. Gen AI will become an essential part of any brainstorming or creative process, as it has proven its ability to be imagine new possibilities.

•Initiative: A 2023 Gallup study of employees shows only 33% are actively engaged at work, with the remaining two-thirds either not engaged or actively disengaged. Individual initiative will continue to be rewarded in good organizations. In the future, it will be possible for people who have initiative to produce more and better work more quickly using Gen AI.

•Extroversion & Charisma: If generative AI enables writing to be performed at a higher level and more quickly, then differentiation may come from one’s ability to speak in a compelling manner and influence. How one presents in meetings, influences others in conversations, and carries oneself will be what sets one person apart from another. Extroverts may gain at the expense of introverts (in response, introverts should consider being “strategically extroverted” at critical times to show value and gain influence).

•Organizational Skills & Networks: While AI agents will soon be able to take on more tasks in the real world and execute them by themselves, I expect agents will be limited to specific areas and not entire projects. Humans will still be needed to make things happen in organizations. People who can build a strategy, understand organizational politics, successfully influence others and mobilize resources to get things done will be sought after.

•Adaptability, Resilience and Ability to Cope with Uncertainty: Given the technological advances (e.g., AI), geopolitical and domestic political upheavals (e.g., China & Taiwan), economic swings (e.g., job impact of AI) and social unrest (e.g., culture wars), the future will be increasingly unstable. We are not destined to live in quiet times. To survive and thrive, individuals must be able to adapt to and succeed in an ever-more dynamic environment. “Anti-fragility”, the ability to not only deal with shocks but grow from them will be a necessary trait going forward.

•Virtues and Character: Possessing virtue and character will be needed to act ethically in the coming challenging times, especially with regard to the proliferation and use of Gen AI. For example, AI-generated fake news and hallucinations will require us to practice epistemic and intellectual humility.

•Gen AI Skills: Last but certainly not least, one’s ability to utilize Gen AI tools and use them well (e.g., prompting skills) is fundamental to success in the comings years, as illustrated above.

Is the loss of some skills harmful or irrelevant?

Can you sing the 24 books of the Iliad (~50 hours) by heart and accompany yourself on the lyre? No? Before we became a print society, we were an oral society. Bards sang the Iliad, the Odyssey and other tales. Even regular people were able to share long and rich stories with others. We lost that skill. Does that matter? Our ability to memorize has gone down but our access to information has risen considerably. Was that a good tradeoff?

A more recent instance - with the advent of GPS many, especially younger people, have lost the ability to navigate via maps (we’ve also likely lost printed maps as well due to lack of demand). Is that a problem? As long as we have GPS, no. And not having to think about where we are going via just following voice directions allows us to use our brains for other tasks. However, there is likely also some loss of spatial ability in that process.

Like so many things Gen AI, it is too early to tell. But given the impact of the cell phone (and not just on gum but our behavior) we do know the tools we use will fundamentally change us. Cell phones have given us access to instant information, entertainment and connection to others, along with other benefits. At the same time, they have made us more isolated even when we are in the presence of loved ones.

As we move into the future and new tools offer great benefits but also significant downsides, we should keep in mind this quote from Thoreau.

“But lo! men have become the tools of their tools.”
Henry David Thoreau